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| Decoupling and Prediction Analysis of Carbon Emissions for the Paper Industry |
| Received:November 22, 2024 |
| DOI：10.11980/j.issn.0254-508X.2025.02.010 |
| Key Words:paper industry carbon emission production decoupling prediction |
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| Abstract:Tapio model was used to analyze the decoupling state between carbon emissions and paper production， and the carbon emissions under different development scenarios were predicted based on the STIRPAT model for the paper industry. The results showed that the carbon emissions and paper production were decoupled strongly or weakly. The energy intensity and electricity emission factor were the main factors to drive decoupling the carbon emissions. The total carbon emissions of paper industry would continue to increase under the current development scenario. In order to mitigate these emissions， in addition to reducing the emission factor of electricity and increasing the recycling rate of waste paper， the comprehensive use of improving energy efficiency and accelerating energy transition should be encouraged to achieve the purpose of transforming the carbon emission from growth to reduction from 2030. |
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