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| Impact of CPTPP Expansion on China’s Paper Industry |
| Received:September 22, 2022 |
| DOI：10.11980/j.issn.0254-508X.2023.10.017 |
| Key Words:CPTPP paper industry GTAP industry analysis |
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| Abstract:Based on the global dynamic general equilibrium model， this paper explored the effects of CPTPP and further expansion on the market structure adjustment and domestic development dilemma of China’s paper industry from the perspective of tariff reduction and trade facilitation. The results showed that the expansion of CPTPP would promote the development of China’s paper industry， but due to the influence of industrial scale， competitiveness， and complementarity， the further expansion of CPTPP to South Korea， the United States， and other countries would weaken the trade relationship between China and the former CPTPP countries. Among them， the trade between Japan， Malaysia， and China was highly complementary and the trade relationship was stable. Mexico was expected to become the focus of future development because of its high complementarity， weak competitiveness with China， and great potential for domestic demand， but Vietnam and Australia were obviously affected by the CPTPP further expansion and were easily replaced by the United States， South Korea， and other countries. Based on this， this paper proposed that China should continue to promote trade negotiations， strengthen the layout of overseas investment， maintain the stability of the paper supply chain， promote the deep integration of the industry chain， and reshape the division of labor in the value chain. |
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